Open packs or sell them sealed? Framework · drop data wanted
Every shop owner hits this fork: crack the pack and sell the singles, or shelve it untouched. The answer is an expected-value question — and we'll be straight with you: the public drop-rate data to answer it definitively doesn't exist. Here's the framework that works, and how to build the missing numbers yourself.
The decision, in one formula
Opening a pack pays off when the average value of what's inside beats the sealed price:
EV(sealed) = sealed shelf price − pack cost
Three things decide which side wins: the pack cost, the distribution of card values inside it, and how much your time is worth (singles take shelf space and pricing effort; sealed packs are one SKU).
What changed in 1.0 (and why old answers are stale)
Patch 1.0 (2026-09-15) changed Tetramon card values and added the Ascension pack line with 1,452 new cards (official patch notes). Any expected-value numbers calculated before 1.0 are working with different card values — including most community guides and spreadsheets you'll find. Recompute or re-record before trusting any of them, including ours.
Why variance matters more than the average
Two packs can have the same expected value and feel nothing alike: one pays out steady small margins on commons, the other is a lottery ticket on a top-tier rare. If your cash buffer is thin, the steady version keeps the lights on; the lottery version can eat a week of profit on one bad box. Early on, the question isn't only "which pays more on average" — it's "which variance can I afford".
The honest state of the data
- No developer-published drop rates or margin tables exist for the current version — we looked, as of 2026-10-01, and say so rather than inventing numbers.
- Community claims about pull rates float around forums; none we found carry a recorded sample for 1.0. We won't print them as facts.
- What is known: pack contents and card values changed in 1.0, so this page's framework + your own sample is currently the only reliable answer.
How to decide with your own data (works today)
- Record 20–50 opens of one pack type: cards pulled, and what each actually sold for.
- Average the per-pack payout — that's your personal EV(open) before pack cost.
- Compare with your sealed shelf price (same markup math as any product).
- Re-run after each game update; 1.0 just proved how fast card values move.
Have a recorded 1.0 sample of 50+ packs? Send it over — we'll publish it with credit and label the sample size.
Where to next
- Ghost rare cards — the tail of the distribution that swings this decision.
- How pricing works — for pricing both the sealed packs and the singles.
- Pricing calculator.
Sources & version notes
- 1.0 changes (card values, Ascension packs, 1,452 new cards): SteamDB 1.0 patch notes — official. Accessed 2026-10-01.
- Drop-rate status: our own search of wikis, guides and community discussions as of 2026-10-01 found no sampled data for 1.0. That's a documented absence, not a guess.
Unofficial fan page. Not affiliated with OPNeon Games.